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TheWeatherCenter - Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

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FNUS21 KWNS 191617

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z


Much of the current forecast remains on track. Though modest RH
recovery has been observed early this morning, -5 mb pressure
gradients have recently been observed within the LAX vicinity within
the past few hours, with latest model guidance suggesting 15-25 mph
sustained surface winds persisting in terrain-favored areas through
the afternoon/early evening hours. Simultaneously, temperatures are
expected to reach the mid 70s across the elevated/critical
delineated areas, with RH becoming near-critical to critically low
with the heating of the afternoon. For these reasons, the critical
and elevated delineations have remained unchanged.

..Squitieri.. 10/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

The greatest fire weather concerns today will reside across portions
of southern California, where a strong (1028 mb) high pressure area
over the Great Basin will combine with weak surface troughing
along/just west of the California coast to produce offshore winds. 
Elsewhere, relatively cool and wet conditions along with unfavorable
fuel states will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

...Southern California...
The aforementioned offshore flow pattern will result in areas of
15-30 mph northeasterly surface winds amidst a dry surface airmass. 
This surface flow will be slightly stronger in terrain-favored
areas, and will combine with areas of dry fuels and critically low
RH values to foster rapid fire spread.  Latest model guidance
suggests that an areas of slightly stronger surface flow will
persist through the mid-morning areas across portions of Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties through mid/late morning, lending some
confidence that critical surface wind thresholds will be met in
these areas.  A critical area has been introduced as a result. 
Farther south, spotty critical fire weather conditions will occur,
although on a less-widespread basis, with elevated fire weather
conditions being more common.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...