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TheWeatherCenter - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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FNUS22 KWNS 221951

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

A low-amplitude shortwave trough over central BC this afternoon
should continue moving east-southeastward into Day 2/Monday.
Convection associated with this feature is generally expected to
remain north of the international border. While there may be a low
chance for very isolated lightning strikes over dry fuels across the
far northern Cascades in north-central WA tomorrow afternoon,
currently probabilities appear less than 10%. Therefore, no isolated
dry thunderstorm area has been introduced for this region.

The SBA-SMX surface pressure difference is forecast to modestly
increase to around -3 mb Monday evening across parts of coastal
southern CA as an upper ridge slowly retrogrades westward across the
western CONUS. Locally elevated conditions may be possible across
mainly coastal Santa Barbara County Monday evening/night as
northerly winds strengthen to around 20-25 mph. RH values should
become only marginally reduced to around 20-25% per latest
short-term guidance. If forecast RH values lower any further, then
an elevated area would need to be introduced.

Only very minor changes have been made to the isolated dry
thunderstorm area across parts of northern CA, southern OR, and far
northwestern NV. See the previous discussion below for more

..Gleason.. 07/22/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

A lack of strong winds across much of the western CONUS will
preclude wind/RH concerns on Monday. The primary fire weather
concern will be dry thunderstorms in northern California, southern
Oregon, and northwest Nevada. Instability is expected to be greater
on Monday with slightly faster storm motion than Sunday. This could
suggest the need for a scattered dry thunderstorm area, but PWAT
values will be at or close to 1 inch which may lead to a combination
of wet and dry storms. Therefore, will highlight this area with
isolated dry thunderstorm potential at this time. 

Otherwise, dry conditions and east winds around 15 mph in far west
Texas would support an elevated area. However, significant monsoon
precipitation over the past 7 days (estimated over an inch in most
locations) precludes the need for an elevated area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...