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TheWeatherCenter - Day 3 Fire Weather Outlook

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503 
FNUS28 KWNS 232004
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

Broad upper-level troughing will continue to be the dominant feature
across the central/eastern CONUS through D5/Sunday. A surface
cyclone will drop south out of Canada and move into the Upper
Midwest by D6/Monday. Farther west, another shortwave trough will
dig towards the southern Plains. This will induce a weak lee cyclone
to develop over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some dry,
southwesterly flow is possible in eastern New Mexico into the
western Texas Panhandle on D5/Sunday; however, afternoon RH and
duration of strong winds is too marginal to introduce probabilities.
A better chance for critical conditions exists as the lee cyclone
develops on D6/Monday. The deterministic GFS/ECMWF as well as the
ECMWF ensemble all suggest dry westerly/southwesterly flow will
occur across portions of the Trans-Pecos region eastward to near the
Big Bend. A 40% area has been introduced for these locations.

High pressure in the Great Basin will drive moderate/strong offshore
flow across southern California on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. Fuels
in the area will continue to dry, but their current moisture levels
still preclude introduction of any probabilities. However, any
localized areas with drier fuels may experience elevated fire
weather conditions.

..Wendt.. 01/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$