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TheWeatherCenter - Day 5 Fire Weather Outlook

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869 
FNUS28 KWNS 222155
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

An upper ridge should continue retrograding slowly westward across
the western CONUS through Day 4/Wednesday. By late this upcoming
week, a couple of low-amplitude shortwave troughs may erode the
northern extent of the upper ridge across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies/Great Basin. Consensus of medium-range guidance
indicates the upper ridge may become reestablished and amplify over
the western CONUS by next weekend.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 6/Friday: Portions of Northern CA and the
Pacific Northwest...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across northern CA,
southern OR, and northwestern NV on Day 3/Tuesday. Mid-level
moisture should be sufficient to support weak instability, and
terrain influences will probably be the main forcing mechanism to
initiate convection. A dry boundary layer should limit wetting
rainfall potential, and receptive fuels will aid new fire starts
with any lightning that does occur. Isolated dry thunderstorms could
continue across the Pacific Northwest and vicinity from Day
4/Wednesday to Day 6/Friday, but a high degree of uncertainty
regarding large-scale forcing for ascent, sufficient instability,
and coverage all suggest introducing 10%/isolated areas for dry
thunderstorms would be premature.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Portions of Coastal Southern
CA...
Strong/gusty northerly winds appear probable across portions of
southern CA Tuesday and Wednesday evening/night across parts of
coastal southern CA as the surface pressure gradient strengthens
across this region. 40%/marginal areas have therefore been
introduced for Santa Barbara County for both Day 3/Tuesday and Day
4/Wednesday where the best gusty wind/lowered RH overlap is
forecast. There remains too much uncertainty in the strength of the
pressure gradient on Day 5/Thursday to include any probabilities at
this time.

...Day 5/Thursday - Day 7/Saturday: Portions of the Northern
Rockies/Great Basin...
An increase in surface winds could occur each afternoon from Day
5/Thursday through Day 7/Saturday across parts of the northern
Rockies and Great Basin as modestly enhanced mid-level winds move
over these regions. These winds may occasionally overlap with
lowered RH values and dry fuels, but current medium-range model
guidance remains too disparate in the areas of best critical
potential to introduce 40%/marginal delineations for now.

..Gleason.. 07/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$