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398 
ACUS01 KWNS 191949
SWODY1
SPC AC 191947

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are possible
through early evening over a portion of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas.

...Discussion...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing Marginal
probabilities. They have been focused closer to the Mexican border,
where wind profiles and surface-based buoyancy are slightly more
favorable for updraft organization and related potential for gusty
winds and marginally severe hail. Elsewhere, the potential for
isolated thunderstorms continues across parts of South Florida, the
Texas coast, and the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Picca.. 10/19/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

...Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas...

In wake of lead impulse over southeast NM, a secondary vorticity
maximum located over central AZ will advance east today, reaching 
NM later this afternoon into evening. Between these two features,
visible satellite imagery shows an area of clearing spreading east
through southwest toward south-central NM where surface dewpoints
are near 50F. Diabatic warming in presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to marginal (400-800 J/kg) MLCAPE and deeply
mixed, inverted-v boundary layers this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the higher terrain of central through
southwestern NM and increase in coverage with approach of deeper
forcing for ascent attending the upstream shortwave trough. While
vertical shear will remain weak and supportive of multicells, the
thermodynamic environment will promote at least a marginal risk for
a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts later this
afternoon into early evening.

$$