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299 
ACUS01 KWNS 240554
SWODY1
SPC AC 240553

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula later this
morning, with a few strong to severe wind gusts and a brief tornado
possible. A few strong storms with damaging wind the main threat
will also be possible over eastern North Carolina later this
morning.

...Florida Peninsula...

A strong (50+ kt) southerly low-level jet will migrate through the
FL Peninsula this morning with theta-e advection resulting in 65-67
F dewpoints over much of central FL by 12Z. Despite this modest
increase in low-level moisture, instability will remain marginal
(generally below 800 J/kg) due to poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread clouds. A band of convection with embedded thunderstorms
will persist along the warm conveyor belt through the peninsula
during the morning. The kinematic environment accompanying a
progressive upper trough moving through the Southeast States will
favor a few organized structures including embedded bowing segments
and meso-vortices. However, tendency will be for the stronger
forcing associated with the upper trough to move away from the FL
Peninsula later this morning. This along with the expected marginal
thermodynamic environment lowers confidence in a more robust severe
threat. Therefore will maintain the marginal risk category this
update, mainly for isolated damaging wind and a tornado. 

...Eastern North Carolina...

A surface low will develop over the Mid Atlantic States by the start
of this period in association with the northeast-ejecting shortwave
trough. The attendant intense (80+ kt) low level jet will develop
through eastern NC and eastern VA resulting in the advection of low
60s F near-surface dewpoints inland and modest destabilization of
the surface layer, though widespread clouds and weak lapse rates
should limit MLCAPE to below 500 J/kg. With the stronger forcing
moving through the Mid Atlantic region early in the period within a
very favorable kinematic environment for organized storms, potential
exists for a low-topped pre-frontal band of convection to intensify
from eastern NC into eastern VA later this morning. This band of
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms may pose some risk for
mainly damaging wind gusts given 60+ kt just off the surface that
could be transported downward within the stronger convective
elements. Activity should move offshore by late morning.

..Dial/Squitieri.. 01/24/2019

$$