U.S Directory

U.S. | Northeast | Greatlakes | Northern plains | Northwest | Southwest | Central plains | West coast | Southern plains | East coast | South East |

ACUS02 KWNS 191709
SPC AC 191708

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


A few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Plains,
Florida Peninsula, and Pacific Northwest Friday. Isolated storms
will also be possible Friday night across the mid Missouri and upper
Mississippi Valleys.

As a series of strong upper jets move ashore the West Coast over the
next 24 hours, 500mb heights will gradually fall over much of the
western half of the US on Friday. Related to this evolution, several
weak mid/upper perturbations will lift northeast from the southern
Plains towards the upper Mississippi Valley through Friday and into
the overnight hours. The associated low-level response will be
characterized by a gradual northward advance of greater moisture,
with a narrow corridor of lower/mid 60s surface dew points extending
to the central Plains by Friday evening. Within this warm/moist
advection regime, sufficient instability should be present for a few
thunderstorms across Texas and Oklahoma, with the greatest
likelihood closer to the Texas coast during the day. While effective
shear and mid-level lapse rates could support a stronger storm or
two across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas,
the nebulous nature of forcing for ascent, in addition to the
presence of inhibition in the 850-700mb layer, will likely keep
thunderstorm coverage too limited for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

Farther north, within a broad regime of enhanced 850mb
southwesterlies and related warm advection, isolated thunderstorms
will be possible from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward to
Minnesota Friday night. Although mid-level lapse rates should
steepen some overnight, limited elevated buoyancy will likely keep
storms isolated and below severe limits.

..Picca.. 10/19/2017